Posts filed under LJ Feminist Forum

Of course you don’t…

Of course you don’t want to criticize John Milton for not using inclusive language or Victorian authors for perpetuating the anatomical mystery of the vagina. These are more modern concepts of equality.

Well, why wouldn’t you want to criticize them for this? If positing men as the default is bad for women now it was bad for women then, too, wasn’t it?

Re: only a few rape

  1. 65% is not a “guesstimation.” It is the outcome of calculating the conjoint probability of 12 independent events each of which has a 1/12 probability of occurring (= (1/12)12), then subtracting the result from 1. If you choose any one man at random then 1 time out of 12 that man will be someone who committed rape. But if you choose a group of 12 men at random, then about 65% of the time, at least one man in that group of 12 men will be a man who committed rape. I showed you how this percentage is calculated already. If you don’t understand what that means, fine, but quit trying to bust my chops about something you clearly don’t understand. As for why it matters: most women know at least 12 men. That means the chances are they know some men who have already committed rape and some who will in the future. This is a simple and horrible fact that women have to deal with every day and it is a basic touchstone of a lot of feminist politics. For good reason. Because it’s a response to a simple and horrible reality.

  2. Koss’s work is not a quote-study-unquote. It’s a study. One which is highly regarded in the literature by professional psychologists and sociologists who study sexual assault and which has had its findings confirmed by several later studies, such as the CDCP/NIJ’s National Violence Against Women study and the NIJ’s Sexual Victimization of College Women study. Again, there’s nothing wrong with not knowing the literature on this topic but there is something wrong with lecturing feminists about getting their facts straight and accusing people of uttering “bullshit” or being dishonest when you haven’t spent the time finding out whether what you’re saying is true or not.

So why did you and everyone else fail to bring up that the 1 out of 4 and 1 out of 12 statistics involve a study of college students? Because you’re intentionally being misleading.

This is simply a defamatory lie. You owe me an apology and you ought to be embarassed that you have stooped to it. Here is what I said in the very first post that you responded to (boldface added):

The Koss survey on sexual victimization on college campuses found that about 1 in 12 male respondents admitted to committing acts that met the legal definition of rape.

Now, if we just grant the measure as representative of the general population (it’s probably not, but the factors that would change it—e.g., the number of men who commit rape after leaving college—would mostly tend to make it an underestimation rather than an overestimation),

I stated at the beginning of this conversation that I was working from data gathered from college students and that readers should take them with the necessary grain of salt when applying them to the population at large. However, what I also noted is that most of the factors that might make the numbers unrepresentative would tend to make them too low rather than too high. Here’s one example: if the number of college women who have been sexually assaulted in their lifetime hasn’t significantly increased in the past 20 years (and we know, from studies such as SVCW) then factoring in college graduates cannot possibly lower the prevalence of rape, because we are talking about lifetime prevalence, and incidents that happened while you were in college or high school still count when you are 30 or 40.

You could claim that all the people who never went to college will make a difference. True, but in order to parlay that into a claim that Koss’s figures are significantly inflated you’d first have to give some reason to think that women who never went to college are significantly less likely than those who do to be assaulted (or that men who never went to college are significantly less likely than those who do to commit assault). As it turns out, there’s been plenty of research since Koss’s study came out that specifically dealt with the general population instead of college students (the largest being the CDCP/NIJ National Violence Against Women Study) and the research confirmed that her findings about the prevalence of rape on college campuses were in fact reflective of the population as a whole.

Again, these are things you could know by simply taking the time out to read the relevant research.

Professional antifeminists have spent a lot of time and money and print in the effort to misrepresent Koss’s study, knock over straw dogs that only vaguely resemble it at best, dissemble about its acceptance by social scientists (it is widely accepted and the charges against it are sheer fabrication), and thus dismiss what it has to say wholesale and deride feminists who have made use of it as dishonest partisans. I say these things not because I intend to accuse you of any bad motives, but rather to point out that unless you have actually spent some time reading the research itself then it’s likely that most of what you know about it in fact comes from unqualified hacks who do have bad motives and who often have not even read the primary sources that they claim to be criticizing.

If you want to have a serious talk about the prevalence of sexual assault in our society and how it is measured, that’s fine, but you had better realize that there is serious literature on the topic of putting numbers to the problem and how those numbers are arrived at. If you expect to know what you are talking about when it comes to these questions then you had better put in the effort to learn something about that literature. If you don’t care enough about the issue to spend the time that it takes to learn about it, that’s also fine, but then you had better not go around throwing accusations of dishonesty at the people who have.

Re: only a few rape

Trigger warning: Folks should know ahead of time that this comment might be triggering for sexual assault experiences.

Unfortunately the numbers are accurate.

Koss counted men as having committed rape if they answered yes to a group of questions in her ten question Sexual Experience Survey (section C). If you want a list of the questions themselves I can probably dig one up for you later in the day when I have access to JSTOR. In the meantime, here is Koss’s description of the metric (in an Afterword to Robin Warshaw’s I Never Called it Rape [1994]):

Five classes of sexual aggression and sexual victimization, sexual contact, sexual coercion, attempted rape, and rape. The groups labeled “rape” and “attempted rape” included women who had experienced and men who had perpetrated acts that met legal definitions of these crimes. the typical definition of rape is the following: “… vaginal intercourse between male and female, and anal intercourse, fellatio, and cunnilingus … Penetration, however slight, is sufficient to complete vaginal or anal intercourse…. No person shall engage in sexual contact with another person … when any of the following apply: (1) the offender purposely compels the other person to submit by force or threat of force, (2) for the purpose of preventing resistence the offender substantially impairs the other person’s judgment or control by administering any drug or intoxicant to the other person….” (Ohio Revised Code, 1980). I have used this strict, narrow definition of rape and have tried to stay in line with legal requirements. The people labeled “rape” victims or perpetrators all experienced acts that involved oral, anal, or vaginal intercourse or penetration by objects against consent through the use of force or threat of bodily harm, or intentional incapacitation of the victim. (p.207)

Some critics of Koss’s study have claimed that the numbers may be inflated because of ambiguous wording in the question concerning the use of intoxicants. I’ve read the question and I don’t think the wording is actually particularly ambiguous, but whether it is or not, Koss also ran the same analyses over again without the question on incapacitation by intoxicants (i.e., so that she was only counting cases in which rape was accomplished against consent by the use of force or the threat of force). She found that it did not significantly affect her results — if you exclude the intoxicant question then the number of women who are counted as having suffered a rape or attempted in their lifetime goes from 1 in 4 to … 1 in 5.

There’s a long argument here about the details of the survey methodology, the finding of later studies (the short version is: they confirm Koss’s findings), and back-and-forth over the characteristics of Koss’s work. But that leads us pretty far astray. The bottom line is that Koss’s research is well-supported and widely accepted among professional social scientists (the attacks on it originated from hit pieces commissioned by Playboy and repeated by professional antifeminists with no particular academic qualifications, such as Katie Roiphe and Warren Farrell).

But that would take us pretty far afield from the point. What all these numbers tell us, in the end, is something that my own experience — listening to my friends tell me about what happened to them — showed me before I ever looked into the literature. Rape is horrifyingly common. You almost certainly know women who have been raped (on average, 1/4 women) and you know men who have committed rape (on average, 1/12 men) — even if you don’t know that you know them. That’s a big part of the reason why I’m a feminist: because this daily, horrifying violence is no accident and it’s no law of nature, and it’s something that we can and must work to end.

Re: only a few rape

Trigger warning: folks should know ahead of time that this may be triggering for sexual assault experiences.

That said…

One last note on the math. This sub-thread is frustrating, and also both boring and irrelevant. The calculation is simple, just as simple as figuring out that if a coin has a 1/2 chance of coming up heads, then it has a 1-(1/2)2 = 3/4 chance of coming up heads at least once on two throws and a 1-(1/2)3 = 7/8 chance of coming up heads at least once on three. This is high school algebra to figure out the formula and elementary school arithmetic to calculate it. In the population at large about 1 in 12 men has committed rape. That means that if you pick men at random, you will on average find one rapist for every 12 picks. For any one pick, the chance that that one man is a rapist is about 8%. If you pick 12 men, the chance that at least one of those 12 men has committed rape is 1-(11/12)12. If this confuses you then you are either not reading closely or don’t understand mathematics very well at all. But it’s a point not worth pursuing any further than it has been.

First of all, I question the validity of the 1 out of 12 statistic. That seems inflated. Maybe you believe it but I do not.

I’m frankly not interested in what you question or what you believe. The question is what evidence you have to support your doubts. Judging from what follows, the answer is “not very much.”

I, like another said, would LOVE to see how those numbers were reached and what exactly you or they mean by the “legal definition of rape.”

Then I suggest that you read the article or the books that I referred you to. They explain the study and its findings in some detail. For the purposes of the study women and men were counted as rape survivors if they had ever been subjected to “acts that involved oral, anal, or vaginal penetration, or penetration by objects against consent through the use of force or threat of bodily harm, or intentional incapacitation of the victim” (Dr. Mary Koss, in Warshaw [1994] p. 207). Men were counted as having committed rape if they had ever committed such acts.

Speaking from experience, that usually isn’t just rape, but unwanted touching or crude comments/sexual harrassment. So saying that 1 out of 12 men are RAPISTS is a pretty exaggerated, misleading claim. It’s bullshit to put it bluntly.

Koss’s figures for rape (that 1/4 college women is a rape survivor, that 1/12 college men have committed rape) do not include “unwanted touching” or “crude comments / sexual harrassment.” Koss also measured those things in her study and has interesting things to say about them, but the 1/4 and 1/12 numbers that have been cited don’t include such cases. You would know this if you had read anything at all about the study.

Of course, everybody has a limited amount of time and it’s no crime not to have read a lot about professional social science research on a rather grim subject. But if you haven’t read any of the books or articles involved then you can hardly expect to know what you’re talking about when it comes up. And if you don’t know what you’re talking about, why are you still talking about it?

Re: only a few rape

“Seriously, I’m not trying to be rude”

You’re not trying very hard. You’re also not trying very hard to read my posts.

1 in 12 men in United States colleges admitted, in an anonymous study, that they had committed acts which met the legal definition of rape. This number is not made up and it is not the result of bad math. It is the result of Dr. Mary Koss’s 1986 study of sexual victimization on college campuses for the National Institute of Mental Health. If you would like to find out more about the study and its findings, you can find it in Koss’s most famous article on the study findings, “Hidden rape: sexual aggression and victimization in a national sample of students in higher education” (1988), which can be found in Rape and Sexual Assault II, ed. Ann Wolbert Burgess, New York: Garland, 3-25, or in popular reports such as Robin Warshaw’s I Never Called it Rape (1994) HarperPerennial, New York. The latter book summarizes the study findings and includes an appendix by Dr. Koss on the methodology of the survey. Note that more recent studies have found similar results to Koss’s.

The statement that I made, which you have so far failed to understand, is that the probability that at least one man in a group of 12 men has committed an act legally meeting the definition of rape is about 65%. This is not hard to calculate if you know a little bit about probability (specifically that P(A&B) = P(A)P(B|A), and that P(~A) = 1-P(A)). If we take it that the 1 in 12 figure is representative of the population as a whole, then the probability that a man selected at random has committed rape is 1/12 (about 0.08). The probability that he has not is 11/12 (about 0.92). If you pick out two men at random and put them in a room together, then the probability that neither of them have committed rape is (11/12)(11/12), which is about 0.84. If you pick out 12 men and put them in a room together, the probability that none of those men have committed rape is (11/12)12, which is about 0.35.

Which is to say, if you see 12 or more men in a day, the chances are that you have encountered a rapist. (If it’s 12, the chances are about 1 – 0.35, or about 65%. If it’s more, the odds are even worse.)

The point of all this is that there are a hell of a lot of men out there who have already committed rape. You encounter them every day. I know a few of them by name, unfortunately, and I know that there are many more out there that I don’t know of. I’m not the only one in this position. You are too, and so is most everyone else. And if women are pissed off about the fact that rape is prevalent and that so many men do it and if women are worried about it and make it a significant political priority, it’s not because women are paranoid or weird; it’s because they know what the hell is going on around them.

First you said that…

First you said that 92% of men do NOT committ rape, then later say that in a room of 12 men, there’s a 92% chance that one of them a rapist. That makes no sense.

There’s no inconsistency here, just a calculation error. I made a dumb mistake in calculating the probability of at least one of 12 men in a room being a rapist if 1 out of every 12 men in the general population has committed rape. Here is the actual figure. If 1 in 12 men have committed rape, then the chance that there is at least one man who has committed rape in a group of 12 men is the chance that it’s not the case that none of them have committed rape. The chance that any one man hasn’t committed rape is 11/12, and since the probabilities are independent of one another the chance that none of them has is (11/12)^12, or about 0.35. So if you are in a room with 12 men the chances that at least one is a rapist are about 100%-35%, or 65%.

I don’t know about you, but I still don’t like those odds.

I question the validity of that really, but I’ll assume it’s true for the sake of argument. You said that you don’t know if 8% qualifies as a vast, overwhelming majority?

No, I didn’t; you misunderstood what I wrote. I questioned whether 92% qualifies as “a vast, overwhelming majority.” The answer is that “vast” and “overwhelming” are not precise modifiers for “majority.” Whether a particular majority is “vast” or “overwhelming” usually depends on the purposes you have in making a distinction between the vast majorities and the ordinary kind. If there’s a 11:1 ratio in favor of watching MASH instead of Cheers, it makes sense to say “Let’s watch MASH. The vast, overwhelming majority of us want to watch MASH.” If there were a car that exploded and killed 1 out of every 12 people who used it, it wouldn’t make sense to say “Why worry? The vast, overwhelming majority of those cars don’t explode and kill you.”

I’ll leave it up to you whether you think the stakes involved in the matter of committing rape are more like the stakes involved in danger to life or limb, or those involved in choosing the right teevee show.

“the vast, overwhelming majority…

“the vast, overwhelming majority of men (and women) DO NOT RAPE.”

The Koss survey on sexual victimization on college campuses found that about 1 in 12 male respondents admitted to committing acts that met the legal definition of rape.

Now, if we just grant the measure as representative of the general population (it’s probably not, but the factors that would change it—e.g., the number of men who commit rape after leaving college—would mostly tend to make it an underestimation rather than an overestimation), that means that 8% of men are rapists, and about 92% are not. Does that mean a “vast, overwhelming majority” of men aren’t rapists? I don’t know; that depends on what you’re considering “vast” and “overwhelming” for a particular purpose. I mean, look, 92:8 is a big ratio, but it 8% of men is still a lot of men. In a country of about 115,000,000 men over the age of 16, that means about 10,000,000 rapists. It means that if you put 12 average men in a room together, the probability that at least one of them is a rapist is about 92%. (I am given to understand that most women will encounter at least 12 men on an average day.)

Most men are not rapists. But 1 in 12 is not a marginal population of freaks; it’s a hell of a lot of men, a hell of a lot of dangerous men who are not easy to pick out, who look more or less like “ordinary” men by any measure. And the notion that that’s a small enough minority that it doesn’t or shouldn’t make a difference to most women’s lives, or how most women react to men on a day to day basis, or to their political commitments and priorities, is frankly nuts.

State and local events

There won’t be a national march but you might check with feminist and abortion rights groups for your state or community. At least some are doing anniversary events—I just got a card from MARAL (the Michigan state branch of NARAL) about a march and lobbying day they’re holding in the state capital as an anniversary commemoration. Folks in your neck of the woods may be doing similar. Or if they’re not, there’s a good month left for y’all to plan an event of your own!

Not that there’s anything wrong with that…

Not to be picky, but what’s wrong with being an ugly bald man-hating miliant? Some of my best friends are bald man-hating militants. I don’t think they’re ugly, but I don’t think that anything should turn on the judgment that someone makes of your appearance.

It’s worth demanding that people realize how diverse feminists are, but let’s not do it at the expense of women whose attitude or appearance might come too close to the stereotypes our critics use to bait us.

“It could be used…

“It could be used to restrict the state’s ability to keep abortion safe. … Malpractice law and regulatory law (requiring that abortions be performed by licensed MDs) could be construed as restricting abortion.”

Laws such as these are very bad ideas and if an amendment were to ban them from going on the books, so much the better for the amendment. Abortion is not a particularly dangerous procedure; prior to legalization it was safely performed by Women’s Liberation activists in the Jane network after they had been trained by a paramedic. And of course there is nothing to prevent women who want an abortion only from a licensed MD from getting it.

Doctor-only and hospital-only laws are a staple of anti-abortion efforts to limit access to abortion; that’s because they dramatically restrict the availability of abortion and drive up the cost. Women who will be able to obtain abortions regardless of the cost or distance that they have to travel to get one will be fine, but the effects are insidious and oppressive for poor women who don’t have the same options.

Lucinda Cisler of New York Radical Women took up the point in Abortion Law Repeal (Sort Of): A Warning to Women back in 1969 (particularly in the closing sections). And the sad thing is that nearly everything she predicted three years before Roe has since come to pass.